UC Davis Expert Confirms IPCC Report Dire-Yet-Not-Too-Late Findings

If you needed confirmation that we face an uncertain environmental future because of climate change, the recent Synthesis Report (SR) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides ample evidence that we do. On the other hand, it lays out a clear path to avoiding the worst of the of impacts if governments and individuals are willing to take it.

The report states, with very high confidence, that there is a “rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future. The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years. Deep, rapid, and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems and deliver many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health.”

Commenting on the report’s findings, Dr. Eric Chu, Assistant Professor at UC Davis, Co-Director of the Climate Adaptation Research Center at UC Davis, and an internationally recognized expert in climate change policy, shared his thoughts with Cool Davis:

“We are already experiencing an average global increase of 1.1°C. More likely than not, in the next 20 years, we will reach 1.5°C if not 2°C. … There is very high confidence of an upward trend. We could be heading towards a 2 or 3°C increase by 2100. Stopping that depends on whether we can drastically cut our greenhouse emissions today. There are very practical things that we can do.”

“Each one of us has a role in supporting and mobilizing mitigation efforts. . . . We must take feasible, effective, and low-cost steps now. And consider the higher cost steps that will need to be taken. We must transition to lower carbon emissions. The politicians and decision makers must take note. There are steps that individuals and governments can take now. The longer we wait the more chance there is of natural disasters: wild fires, coastal flooding, tropical disease moving north.”

The IPCC is a United Nations body tasked to assess the science related to climate change. Formed in 1988, the IPCC is currently composed of 195 member states. The IPCC does not conduct research itself. Rather, scientists from those countries volunteer their time to review and evaluate climate change research. This helps to ensure an objective and complete assessment and to reflect a diverse range of views and expertise. Through its assessments, the IPCC identifies the strength of scientific agreement in different areas and indicates where further research is needed.

The IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report

The IPCC has three Working Groups; The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, and Mitigation of Climate Change. It also has a standing Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories which works to develop and refine a methodology for the calculation and reporting of national greenhouse gas emissions and removals.

Periodically, the reports generated by each of these entities are collected into a synthesis report. The last was issued in 2014. The current one, the sixth, was published in March. You can read the report, including an executive summary, here. https://www.ipcc.ch/ar6-syr/

The timing is not accidental. The report is intended to inform the 2023 Global Stocktake by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change during which countries will review progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, including the goal of keeping global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C (1 degree Celsius equals 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Climate scientists have determined that significant and sustained impacts to the environment will occur at the point average global temperatures exceed 1.5°C.

Findings of the Sixth Synthesis Report: The Current Reality

The foremost finding of the Synthesis Report is that human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with average global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 levels in 2011–2020. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary, but by no means only, contributor which also includes gases such as methane and fluorocarbons. Net CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 were about 2.6 trillion tons.

Close to half (42%) of these emissions occurred in just the three decades between 1999 and 2019. In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (410 parts per million). Improvements in low carbon energy production (solar and wind) have been swamped by the increases in overall GHG caused by increased global production. In other words, while progress has been made, we are overall moving in the wrong direction.

One of the key takeaways from the report is that “we are already experiencing an average global increase of 1.1°C. More likely than not, in the next 20 years, we will reach 1.5°C if not 2°C,” according to Dr. Chu.

“There is very high confidence of an upward trend. We could be heading towards a 2 or 3°C increase by 2100. Stopping that depends on whether we can drastically cut our greenhouse emissions today. There are very practical things that we can do.”

Dr. Eric Chu, Assistant Professor at UC Davis, Co-Director of the Climate Adaptation Research Center at UC Davis, and an internationally recognized expert in climate change policy

As a result of increasing GHG emissions, widespread and rapid changes in the earth’s environments have occurred. Human-caused climate change is affecting weather and climate extremes in every region of the globe. This has led to widespread damage and related losses to nature and people. While the most severe impacts have been to low income and marginalized people up to now, no area and no people have been or will be spared.

Evidence of human caused weather extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, hurricanes and tropical cyclones has strengthened in the past decade. The increased chances of compound extreme events, such as concurrent heatwaves and droughts, is also evident. These have led to direct deaths and increased food and water insecurity. Impacts on some ecosystems may already be irreversible such as the retreat of glaciers, or the changes in Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw.

The Effectiveness of Adaptation

Adaptation to climate change has been uneven in its effectiveness. Despite progress in some areas, “adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Maladaptation is happening in some sectors and regions.”

According to Dr. Chu, “Even within this drastic scenario we are seeing a lot of adaptations that can be taken. That is good news. The report emphasizes that. The not so good news is that the degree to which adaptation is effective depends on whether we can reduce the extent of warming. And, even though there are a lot of adaptation efforts, it is not clear whether they can be scaled up or whether they will ultimately prove to be feasible and effective. There is still a lot of uncertainly around adaptation.“

It is not feasible to adapt to some of the impacts of climate change. Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard limits. Adaptation cannot prevent all losses and damage. In addition, soft limits to adaptation are currently being hit by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints.

The gap between the adaptations necessary and the funding needed to implement them is increasing resulting in fewer steps taken to mitigate the impact of climate change. The report notes other factors impacting slow adaptation are “low climate literacy, lack of political commitment, limited research and/or slow and low uptake of adaptation science, and low sense of urgency.” As the impacts of climate change increases, adaptation will become more expensive and less feasible.

The Predicted Future

Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate being that we will reach 1.5°C of global increase in the near term. Many factors will influence this, most significantly what humans do to mitigate or exacerbate it. But the most likely scenario has the earth reaching the 1.5°F average temperature rise by the midpoint of the 2030’s.

Even under the most optimistic scenario, warming will continue in the near term, up to 2040, due to increased cumulative CO2 emissions. Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would, however, lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years.

Dr. Chu points out that simply throwing up our hands is not an option.

“Our collective goal is to limit overshoot beyond 1.5°C. The conversation should be about how much overshoot we can avoid. This is about changing human behavior. Changing land use and development patterns. And changing energy use. There is a need to consider climate technology. This could be things such as better agriculture technologies to allow land to sequester carbon more effectively all the way to atmospheric scrubbers to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and everything in between. Not that everything in between would be appropriate or feasible but to limit the overshoot, some technology must be part of the conversation.”

Adverse impacts and related losses and damages from climate change will escalate with every increment of global warming. They are higher for global warming of 1.5°C than at present, and increase as average temperatures elevate. The report states that due to unavoidable sea level rise, risks for coastal ecosystems, people and infrastructure will continue to increase beyond 2100 even under the most optimistic scenario.

The report is definite that “some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction.” The likelihood and impacts of abrupt and/or irreversible changes such as species extinction or irreversible loss of biodiversity in ecosystems including forests, coral reefs and in Arctic regions increases with higher emissions.”

“The last thing on the mitigation side is that global net zero carbon emissions can still be reached. If we do that by 2050, we might be able to avoid overshoot beyond 2 degrees of global average. It is still doable. There may still be drastic changes to ecosystems, but if there is enough collective buy-in, there is a chance to avoid the worse outcomes,” said Dr. Chu.

The Way forward to Mitigate Climate Change

These are common themes in the report. There is a window of opportunity that we must take now or the world will face much greater damage and expense in the future. The steps that can and must be taken now will not only help to curb the impacts of climate change far into the future but will have more immediate environmental and health benefits as well.

Dr. Chu expressed a similar recommendation for the path forward. “Each one of us has a role in supporting and mobilizing mitigation efforts. . . . We must take feasible, effective, and low-cost steps now. And consider the higher cost steps that will need to be taken. We must transition to lower carbon emissions. The politicians and decision makers must take note. There are steps that individuals and governments can take now. The longer we wait the more chance there is of natural disasters: wild fires, coastal flooding, tropical disease moving north.”

The report is clear that “individuals with high socio-economic status contribute disproportionately to emissions, and have the highest potential for emissions reductions. Many options are available for reducing emission-intensive consumption while improving societal well-being.” The responsibility to act justifiably falls primarily on those of us in the “first world.” We have caused most of the problem. People in low-income areas who contributed less do not have feasible options to change their lifestyles to reduce GHG emissions.

It is clear that we, collectively and individually, must take steps now to preserve a livable future for the next generations. We can support politicians, decision makers, and policies that further goals of reduced GHG’s. The report highlights that “key adaptation and mitigation elements include considering climate change impacts and risks in the design and planning of settlements and infrastructure; land use planning to achieve compact urban form, co-location of jobs and housing; supporting public transport and active mobility (e.g., walking and cycling); the efficient design, construction, retrofit, and use of buildings; reducing and changing energy and material consumption, material substitution, and electrification in combination with low emissions sources.”

None of this is a surprise or impossible to implement. The solution lies in increasing the density of cities; increasing the availability and use of public transportation; increasing our personal commitment to “people-powered” transportation; electrifying our transportation, businesses and homes; and increasing our commitment to low emissions sources of energy such as wind and solar.

Take. Action. Now

The Cool Davis web site has literally dozens of specific concrete suggestions of what we can do as individuals to reduce our environmental footprint. Our exciting new Cool Davis Earth Day Pledge Challenge (COMING SOON) identifies the greatest impact actions and ways to achieve them; you get busy building new habits, sharing your story, and learning from friends, family, and neighbors.