Everyone is concerned about the third year of drought in California, but things could get worse. A recent study concludes that the chances of a megadrought for the U.S. southwest is now at 50%. A drought lasting 30 years or more could hit southern California, Arizona and New Mexico. Fortunately for those of us living near the Bay Area, our chances of a megadrought are more like 10%.

Chances for a 10-year drought have increased to 80% across the southwest. The study will come out in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.

Toby Ault, Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and lead author of the study, said the current drought is a preview of what will “happen in the future in climate change.”

Megadrought conditions may also strike Australia, southern Africa and the Amazon, the researchers said.

For 39 photos of low water in reservoirs and an expandable map predicting areas likely to experience long-term drought conditions, read here.