CAAP Cheat Sheet: GHG Emissions, Forecast, Targets, Actions, and Timelines
Come hear Kerry Daane Loux answer questions about the CAAP at 11:15 a.m. Sunday, Feb. 26, at Davis United Methodist Church, 1620 Anderson Road. Loux is a Sustainability Coordinator for the City of Davis and Project Manager for CAAP.
For a PDF of the full Final Draft CAAP document,
For more information about the CAAP process, visit the City of Davis CAAP website.
“In 2020, in advance of initiating this CAAP, the City completed a regionally-integrated GHG inventory with partner agencies Yolo County and the Cities of Winters and Woodland, using 2016 as the baseline year for data collection. The CAAP development process included an update to this 2016 GHG emission inventory that incorporated a different on-road transportation emissions calculation methodology to better align with follow-on climate action planning analysis. In 2016, the City of Davis generated 567,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MTCO2e), with most of these emissions generated from onroad transportation (74%). The remaining emissions came from natural gas and electricity use (15%), off-road equipment (4%), wastewater treatment (3%), solid waste disposal (3%), and water supply<1%). Davis’ 2016 base year inventory was used to develop 2030 and 2040 “business-as-usual” forecasts to align with the City’s GHG reduction target years. The 2030 and 2040 forecasts reflect how emissions would change over time in the absence of any further local climate action. The City defined two 2030 GHG targets that are consistent with the state’s 2030 target and climate action planning guidance to local governments. The minimum target is to achieve GHG emission reductions of 40% below 2016 levels by 2030, while the aspirational target is defined as 5.2 MT CO2e/capita/yr (or 53% below 2016 levels). The aspirational target represents a 57% emissions intensity reduction from 2016 levels of 12.0 MT CO2e/capita. The City’s 2040 carbon neutrality goal is five years ahead of the state’s most recent target set in Executive Order B-55-18, which called for statewide carbon neutrality by 2045 and is aligned with the IPCC 2018 report that presents multiple pathways to keep global warming levels below a 1.5˚ Celsius threshold. Figure ES 1 illustrates the City’s GHG forecasts and targets.” City of Davis 2020 CAAP page 15
“Implementation of all priority actions is estimated to reduce community-wide emissions by 149,200 MT CO2e/yr in 2030 and by 250,600 MT CO2e/yr in 2040. Figure ES 2 shows the estimated CAAP action GHG reductions in 2030 and 2040 organized into emissions categories that approximately align with the GHG inventory. The greatest reductions in both years are attributed to on-road transportation (blue) which is largely associated with the estimated adoption of electric vehicle (EV) and other zero-emission vehicle technology. The second and third greatest sources of reductions are from building energy electricity (light orange), which reflects Davis’ participation in Valley Clean Energy and the expectations for its zero-carbon energy mix by 2030 and building energy natural gas (dark orange). Solid waste (gray) actions provide the next greatest sources of reductions, followed by local carbon removal opportunities illustrated in green. The 2030 GHG reductions would result in emissions that are 41% below 2016 levels with an emissions intensity of 6.5 MT CO2e/capita/yr. This current estimate achieves the city’s minimum 2030 GHG target (i.e., 40% below 2016 levels), but falls short of the aspirational goal to achieve an emissions intensity level of 5.2 MT CO2e/capita/yr. The aspirational 2030 target achievement gap is approximately 67,800 MT CO2e/yr, and multiple factors will influence the City’s ability to achieve it. The state may implement new or more aggressive GHG reduction programs to achieve the SB 32 GHG target (i.e., 40% below 1990 levels by 2030). New GHG-reducing technology may be developed, or uptake of current technology might exceed the estimates included in the CAAP analysis, such as EV adoption rates. CAAP action implementation could occur at a higher rate than initially assumed in the GHG reduction estimates, or the City could develop additional GHG reduction actions focused on the 2030 target year. The CAAP priority actions start the City on a realistic trajectory toward the 2040 carbon neutrality target. However, the estimated implementation of this current set of actions would not achieve the City’s target. Predicting the future through 2040 is not possible with accuracy, and there is likely a role for new technology to be developed and deployed, enhanced state and federal programs to be implemented in pursuit of GHG targets at both levels of government, greater progress on implementing the current suite of CAAP actions, and new or enhanced local climate actions to increase participation within the community. The City will also pursue carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies to address any remaining emissions in 2040, including natural sequestration in forests and agricultural lands and industrial CDR at the local and regional level in collaboration with other area governments. The City plans to update the GHG inventory every two years and update the CAAP every five years beginning in 2025.” City of Davis 2020 CAAP page 20.
“Action prioritization is a crucial step in creating a CAAP because it leads to a more implementable and impactful plan. In an ideal world, cities would be able to pursue all actions necessary to achieve carbon neutrality and climate resilience simultaneously, but cities have limited resources and competing needs. When City and community priorities are factored into action selection, the City is more likely to meet its objectives around GHG emissions reduction and climate adaptation goals. Since implementation of actions can result in co-benefits that may not be accounted for in a typical GHG emissions reduction or climate risk analysis, it is useful to assess the additional or indirect impact an action may have. In conducting a CAAP action assessment, establishing evaluation criteria can help select actions that align with City priorities. Additional details on the action selection, evaluation and prioritization process are in Appendix E. The City of Davis received more than 900 comments during its public outreach process, including many CAAP action ideas. The community comments were consolidated into 95 potential actions that were evaluated using the Action Selection and Prioritization (ASAP) Tool (a freely available tool created by the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group for city climate action planning). Many of the suggested action ideas relating to outreach, education, and advocacy were not included in the ASAP evaluation process because, while the efforts might enhance or supplement an action, they would not directly result in significant GHG emissions or climate risk reductions. However, those ideas relevant to specific CAAP actions are incorporated into Appendix A: Implementation Roadmaps, as part of the Outreach and Education Opportunities or in other sections of the Roadmaps. Ideas provided during the community outreach process are considered potential engagement ideas that the City can use to support CAAP implementation. Some of the outreach and education opportunities to be explored included: • Create a placemaking committee to address local ways to reduce GHG emissions and illustrate these approaches in unique and innovative ways in Davis • Create an equity committee to address actionable ways to enhance climate justice in Davis • Promote more community art events to educate on climate issues • Utilize student community service requirements from elementary through high school and through partnerships with relevant UC Davis programs • Work with students, teachers, Parent-Teacher Associations, City staff, local businesses, and others to provide classroom workshops for students on local sustainability actions • Provide information about local healthy food resources • Create a ‘Sustainability Center’ to highlight existing and emerging sustainable technology, provide outreach and educational opportunities, include assistance on goal implementation and economic development, and track/communicate progress • Encourage regular neighborhood and community gatherings to increase social resilience and promote sharing of sustainable ideas and practices.” City of Davis 2020 CAAP page 35